ESA-announce The registration deadline for the 2018 Choice Prediction Competition (CPC18) is tomorrow Sat July 30

Posted on 2018/07/04. Filed under: 綜合 |

WE write to remind you the deadline for registration for Choice Prediction Competition 2018 (CPC18) is June 30th. To register click here.

Each unique submission, even by the same authors, requires registration.

Submission deadline is July 24th (but see below)

Here are the details of CPC18 for those who happened to miss them (including important submission information):

We invite you to participate in the 2018 choice prediction competition (“CPC18”) for human decision making. The main goal of this competition is to improve our understanding of the ways by which behavioral decision research can contribute to the derivation of useful predictions of human decision making, above and beyond what is possible using data-driven machine learning tools (if at all possible).

CPC18 distinguishes between two very different prediction tasks: predicting the aggregate population behavior in an unfamiliar choice problem, and predicting the individual behavior in a familiar choice problem. Specifically, CPC18 includes two parallel competition tracks, and you are invited to participate in either one, or better yet, in both. A second goal of the competition is to then understand what type of models are better suited to handle each type of task.

The rules of the competition and further details are given in https://cpc18.wordpress.com. A white paper summarizing the current stage of the competition is provided here.

As in some of the previous choice prediction competitions, the prize for the winners is an invitation to be a co-author of the paper that summarizes the competition.

The competition’s basic idea is as follows. We previously collected a large dataset of human choices between monetary gambles, under risk and under ambiguity, with and without feedback. This dataset includes over 500,000 individual consequential choices. Almost all of this data is publicly available at https://zenodo.org/record/845873#.WeDg9GhSw2x, and can (and probably should) be used to develop and train your predictive models.

In those experiments, each decision maker faced many problems, and the two tracks differ with respect to the exact prediction challenge:

In track “Individual behavior, familiar problems” the task is to predict the individual behavior of a small portion of these decision makers in some of the problems they faced. Therefore, a small portion of the data already collected will be used as the competition data in that track and is thus not available. The goal in this track is to predict, as accurately as possible, the individual behavior reflected in that data.
To submit to this track, you need to (first register until 6/30, and then) send, by 7/24, a file with your predictions. An example for an acceptable submission is here.

In track "Aggregate behavior, unfamiliar problems” the task is to predict the aggregate choice rates in a new experiment with new problems that we recently ran (during May-June 2018; “the competition set”). As in some of the previous choice prediction competitions, the submissions should be computer programs that read the parameters of the choice problems as input, and derive the predicted choice rates as output.
To submit to this track, you need to (first register by 6/30, and then) send, by 7/24, the code of your model. Examples for acceptable submissions are here. Then, on 7/25, we will publish the tasks used in the competition set. Participants are then required to submit a file with their predictions by July 28th.

We hope that you are up for the challenge!

The organizing team,

Ori Plonsky, Reut Apel, Ido Erev, Eyal Ert, and Moshe Tennenholtz

With apologies for cross-posting

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